THIS WEEK Turns 100! Our Gift: A White in Shining Armor

For our 100th blog entry, we write THIS WEEK from Denver, Colorado, the site of the Democratic National Convention.

We write THIS WEEK standing on the precipice of history. Literally (apparently Joe Biden's favorite word) the whole world is watching as Barack Obama prepares to walk across that figurative stage shared by some of America and the worlds’ most revered leaders, prophetic visionaries and passionate public servants.

We write THIS WEEK as the face, the landscape, the dream of many – the future for all – of American race relations readies for a transformation.

But we also write THIS WEEK to confess. We start out explaining the doubts we had at the as the 2006 mid-term elections closed, when the 2008 presidential campaign officially began. We describe our reservations about the American public. We lay bare our cynicism about the political process: candidates still abundantly willing to use race as a wedge, continually prying open the rift between white and non-white America; political consultants all too eager to break Willie Horton’s mold on the way to creating new, inventive, and ever-more-subtle ways to appeal to whites’ racial resentment, prejudices and fears; political leaders, lobbyists’, activists’ and judges’ seeming giddiness over throwing the proverbial baby out with America’s racial bathwater, sanctioning school segregation , dismantling affirmative action, leaving New Orleans in the lurch after making promises to its poor, disenfranchised, and disproportionately affected black citizens, continuing to disenfranchise reformed felons and creating new versions of old poll taxes (to name a few).

What is really disheartening about it all is the fact that Martin Luther King's rest has been disturbed, perpetually rolling over in his grave (note to Joe Biden: not literally) as those who pursue and maintain such stances have the nerve to cite his dream as their clarion call to put an end to race, to stamp racism case closed, to whitewash people of color so they can feel good about their fantasy that neither race nor racism exists any longer.

In a nutshell, we want to confess and explain THIS WEEK why we thought Barack Obama did not have a chance in hell to still be standing in August, making this historic moment possible. But before we publicly flog ourselves with endless recriminations, we want to remind all of you of an important fact.

None of you thought he had a chance in hell either!

So, what were our early predictions about the 2008 presidential race, and why did we (and you, too) get it wrong?

On December 1, 2006 we predicted that Obama would not be able to secure the Democratic nomination for president:

There's only one thing that matters to Democrats in 2008 - winning. It is this - what is known in political parlance as the question of electability - that will likely make Obama's quest, should he eventually embark on it, difficult. Democrats are likely to find themselves in a vicious circle of reasoning that though they themselves have no problem with Obama being black, they don't think others share their belief (at least not enough people). If you ask Democrats whether the country is "ready for a black President," [our] guess is the answer would be, no (for whites, and many black as well). And so many Democrats, in search for a winning candidate, may likely conclude that people will not vote for a black President - he can't win - and therefore we shouldn't set him and the party up for certain failure.

As the weeks went by, our concerns were borne out, primarily by Hillary Clinton and her supporters. But ultimately, Obama is poised to accept the Democratic nomination here in Denver on Thursday evening. Why?

We had serious doubts about the reliability of polls that showed Obama with large support among white voters. If Obama’s popularity was largely bolstered by respondents’ wishes to appear to not be racist, such support would not result in votes in the voting booth.

The open nature of the caucus process resulted in white voters in Iowa not reverting to their concerns about voters’ implicit racial resentment behind the shield of the voting curtain. Rather, many who had such concerns may have felt that they would be labeled “racist” themselves if they publicly opposed Obama without substantive (as opposed to strategic) reasons. The momentum was short-lived, as Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire Democratic primary in a traditional primary voting system with private voting, but was enough to convince many – including many black leaders who supported Clinton largely because of the belief that she would win (and thus, didn’t want to be on the outs) – that Obama could secure white votes. (See this article by the editors of Public Opinion Quarterly for a more detailed explanation about why exit polling was incorrect in New Hampshire.)

Yesterday in Springfield, Missouri (where Obama formerly announced his candidacy), Obama announced that former nomination opponent Joe Biden would be his running mate. He of the “articulate” comment. He of the nothin’-but-Indians-in-Dunkin’-Donuts comment. He, the (white) working class hero, who will be counted on to win over a demographic that has traditionally voted Democratic but that has not been as reliable in recent elections. This is a large part of the voting population that favored Hillary Clinton in the nomination contest. Eschewing a potential running mate from Virginia, the choice reflects the campaign’s decision to secure rust belt votes rather than trying to turn some “red” Southern states “blue” in November. (By the way, if you missed Stephen’s brilliant analysis of the VP selection process last week, have a look. He not only predicted that Biden was a “train wreck” and would not be Obama’s choice, but he also said that McCain might pick a guy who took himself out of the running days before. What a rummy.)

This brings us to the other concern that we expressed in our December 1, 2006 offering: that even if Obama made it through the primaries, he would not be able to win enough electoral votes to win the presidency.

It seems an almost foregone conclusion at this point that Republicans, especially in the South, have mastered and continue to refine the art of race-baiting; they know such messages will always find fertile ground to influence voting decisions at the least, and develop into vociferous anti-black/minority opposition, even hysteria, at most (especially in a Presidential race). Of course there is always convenient cover for such insidious messages; for Republicans, it is ideology.

One of the trends we have noticed as we researched thousands of campaign ads in races where one candidate was a racial minority is that “liberal” has become a surrogate for “of color” in many instances. When a candidate of color is branded “too liberal” or “extremely liberal,” the message is clear: he or she is not one of “us” (the majority of voters – as this message is never seen in majority-minority districts). To win Electoral College votes, a candidate must win the plurality of votes in the state (with two relatively unimportant exceptions). All states are comprised of a majority of white voters, and white voters have, until this election, overwhelmingly failed to vote for black candidates. Obama is only the third black U.S. Senator since Reconstruction, and there have been only two black governors (though African Americans have won statewide offices of lower salience). Most black members of the U.S. House have come from districts that are majority white. Can Obama change this? Can Biden help him?

On December 1, 2006, we concluded with this statement:

Obama certainly has the qualifications to be president, yet the barriers of race make us quite skeptical about the possibility of the nation electing the first black president.

While all traditional indicators point to a Democratic victory in November, the history that will be made this week renders such indicators less reliable. The extent to which Obama is painted as “the black” candidate will largely determine John McCain’s ability to convince white voters that he is the better choice. From now until November, we will be keeping our eye on the messages coming from McCain’s campaign, the Republican National Committee, and the flurry of 527 “Swift Boat”-type groups that will be sprouting up in the coming weeks. Perhaps Biden’s presence will mitigate Obama’s blackness in the eyes of skeptical white voters who are not in touch with their racial resentment. If so, we’ll be writing another navel-gazing blog on November 5.

In any case, happy birthday to us!